EU or Customs Union? Ukrainians’ Preference
The Democratic Initiatives Foundation, together with the Razumkov Centre, have carried out a public opinion survey to find out people’s attitude to Ukraine’s relations with the EU on the one hand, and the Customs Union on the other. Two thousand people from all parts of the country were surveyed.
In the second half of December, 48% of respondents believed that Ukraine should join the European Union, with 29% against.
40% were in favour of joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, with 37% against.
15% favoured joining NATO, with 60% against.
In an alternative question regarding the integration direction that Ukraine should take: EU, Customs Union or neither, the results were:
EU 42%
Customs Union 32%
Neither 10%
There was a marked difference depending on region with 65% in favour of EU integration in the West; 50% in the Centre; against preference for the Customs Union standing at 50% in the South; and 48.5% in the East.
An absolute majority supported the conditions put forward by the EU for the signing of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement.
Should Ukraine join: | Yes | No | Hard to say |
The EU | 48, 4 | 29, 2 | 22, 4 |
NATO | 14, 9 | 60, 2 | 24, 9 |
Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan | 40, 3 | 36, 7 | 23, 0 |
Which integration direction should Ukraine take? Give one answer only
Joining the EU | 42, 4 |
Joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan | 32, 1 |
Not affiliated to either | 10, 5 |
Hard to say | 15, 0 |
In order to sign the EU Ukraine Association Agreement, Ukraine must fulfil certain conditions. How do you feel about such conditions?
| For | Against | Hard to say |
Improve the electoral system, bring in an electoral code | 68, 7 | 9, 8 | 21, 5 |
Reform the judicial system | 76, 0 | 7, 6 | 16, 4 |
Eliminate politically motivated court rulings | 70, 1 | 9, 7 | 20, 2 |
Enforce European Court of Human Rights judgements | 75, 3 | 7, 0 | 17, 7 |
Do you think that Ukraine is capable of fulfilling these conditions?
Yes, fully | 23, 3 |
Some yes, some no | 35, 2 |
No, not at all | 13, 5 |
Ukraine shouldn’t fulfil the conditions imposed | 10, 3 |
Hard to say | 17, 7 |
What direction do you think Ukraine has been moving in over the last year?
Towards greater integration with the EU | 18, 7 |
Towards greater integration with Russia and CIS countries | 24, 4 |
It hasn’t moved anywhere | 38, 7 |
Hard to say | 18, 2 |
Which integration direction should Ukraine take? Give one answer only
| October 2011 | February 2012. | August 2012 | December 2012 |
Joining the EU | 43, 7 | 38, 6 | 36, 1 | 42, 4 |
Joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan | 30, 5 | 29, 7 | 39, 1 | 32, 1 |
Not affiliated to either | 9, 3 | 11, 7 | 9, 9 | 10, 5 |
Hard to say | 16, 4 | 20, 0 | 14, 9 | 15, 0 |
Should Ukraine join the EU?
| August 2012 | December 2012 |
Yes | 42, 1 | 48, 4 |
No | 38, 6 | 29, 2 |
Hard to say | 19, 3 | 22, 4 |
Should Ukraine join the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan?
| August 2012 | December 2012 |
Yes | 46, 5 | 40, 3 |
No | 34, 5 | 36, 7 |
Hard to say | 19 | 23 |
Should Ukraine join the EU?
| West | Centre | South | East |
Yes | 67, 4 | 55, 2 | 34, 6 | 36, 6 |
No | 15, 5 | 20, 4 | 40, 5 | 40, 9 |
Hard to say | 17, 0 | 24, 4 | 24, 8 | 22, 5 |
Should Ukraine join NATO?
| West | Centre | South | East |
Yes | 35, 1 | 16, 0 | 5, 9 | 5, 8 |
No | 39, 2 | 52, 3 | 73, 9 | 74, 3 |
Hard to say | 25, 7 | 31, 6 | 20, 3 | 19, 9 |
Should Ukraine join the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan?
| West | Centre | South | East |
Yes | 16, 3 | 32, 6 | 54, 4 | 55, 7 |
No | 62, 8 | 37, 8 | 22, 0 | 26, 6 |
Hard to say | 20, 9 | 29, 6 | 23, 6 | 17, 6 |