Overwhelming majority expect unfair elections
The Razumkov Centre has published the results of a survey carried out to assess public opinion about the 2012 parliamentary elections.
77.6% of the respondents said that they were willing to take part (43.1% — «definitely» 34.5% — «most likely»).
What prompts people to take part in the elections?
A sense of civic duty 45%
Fear that somebody else could use their vote 34%
Parties or candidates whom they want to support 22%
The main reasons for not wanting to take part in the elections:
They don’t see any party or candidate whom they’d like to vote for 39%
No faith in the elections being honest 22%
If the elections took place in the first half of April 2012, 6 parties would get into the Verkhovna Rada:
The Party of the Regions 24.5%
Front for Change (Yatsenyuk) 11.9%
Udar Party (Vitaly Klichko) 9.0%
The Communist Party 5.6%
The extreme rightwing party VO Svoboda would receive 3 %, i.e. below the threshold for entering parliament.
18% are still undecided with this bigger in the East: 22%, ; in the West – 11%
There was no consensus regarding the best variant for a united opposition
45% didn’t care
22% wanted Batkivshchyna, Front for Change; UDAR and VO Svoboda to go together;
8& support the merging of only Batkivshchyna and VO Svoboda;
11% think that all opposition parties capable of getting above the threshold to go separately and only unite later.
Expectations are bad
There is an extremely low level of confidence in the fairness of the elections.
37% think the results could be rigged; with another 24% convinced that the results will be rigged.
However these are not much higher than the expectations in 2007 (35% and 20%).
Only 6% believe the elections will be totally honest, while another 24% believe that there will be some infringements but that they would affect the overall result.
Pessimism over the impact of the elections
43% consider that the elections won’t change anything
31% hope that the elections could improve the situation in the country;
6% expressed the fear that they could worsen the situation.
These results were very similar in 2007, although then 12% thought the situation could worsen.
Only 13% are convinced that by voting they are able to impact upon the situation in Ukraine;
38% think that there will be some impact;
39% see no impact.
The results were higher among those certain or fairly certain that they would take part in the elections.
Selling ones vote
56% unequivocally condemn selling ones vote;
Another 27 % view it negatively but “with understanding”
11% are quite positive about selling ones vote.
However 73% say that they would not sell their vote for any price
Only 2% were willing to sell for any price
8% said that they would sell if the price suited them,
Another 8% said that they would only take money if they would have voted for that candidate anyway.
Only 4% of the respondents said that they would vote for a candidate who handed out “assistance” in the constituency – food parcels, medicine, etc. Nearly a third – 32% were not averse to receiving such “assistance”, but think that it will not influence their choice. More than half – 51% - would not take “assistance” and would on principle not vote for such a candidate.
People named the presence of western observers as being the most useful factor at the next parliamentary elections (40%). In terms of effectiveness, the next are seen as being observers from civic organizations (35%); international observers from CIS countries (20%); [People could choose more than one).
21% said that there was no benefit from any observers.
This was all a sharp increase over the importance attributed to observers in 2007
5% of the respondents knew of the creation of the civic movement CHESNO, while another 19% had heard of it. 61% saw benefit in the activities of the organization which will provide information about candidates. 16% saw no benefit.
21% said that such information was important for them, and would influence their choice; another 47% said that they would be interested in finding out the information but were not sure it would have an impact on their choice, while 24% said it was not interesting. This figure, interestingly enough, was roughly equal for different parties supported.
There were a large number of respondents who said they would not vote for candidates implicated in corrupt dealings, even if the person did a lot for the constituency.
Only 32% see elections in Ukraine as a real mechanism of influence by members of the public; 46% do not agree.
The reasons cited:
Politicians don’t keep their election campaign promises: 59%;
The low quality of those standing for office: 45;
The lack of regular public monitoring over the election of those in power 31%
Formation of the executve not according to the results of elections;
Failure of the elections to comply with international standards: 32%
The survey was carried out by the Razumkov Centre together with the Democratic Initiatives Foundation.